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JULY 27,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET: 

WITH A GRAIN OF SALT – There's a Gallup Poll making the rounds that has sent some on our side into spiritual ecstasy.  It holds that Americans today would elect Mitt Romney president over Barack Obama, by 53-44%.   That's the good news.  Buyer's remorse has set in.  But does this mean a Romney revival?  Not necessarily.  The bad news is that Romney, in 2016, wouldn't be running against Barack Obama.  He'd probably be running against Hillary Clinton.  And, in the same poll, Clinton defeats Romney, 55-42%.  Also, Democrats are now ahead of Republicans among registered voters, in the generic ballot, 48-44%.  The gap is probably more narrow among likely voters.  But you can see how tough the landscape really is.

IF YOU'VE LOST BOTH ISRAEL AND THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY – The State Department has taken major offense at some harsh criticism of John Kerry coming out of Israel.  Specifically, the Israelis believe that the ceasefire proposal by Kerry, which Jerusalem rejected, could have been written by Hamas.  But now the Palestinian Authority is making the same charge.  There's no love lost between the PA and Hamas, and the PA resents that Kerry drew up his proposal while consulting with Hamas allies Turkey and Qatar.  So Kerry has both the Israelis and the Pals furious at him at the same time.  You can't deny the guy's level of accomplishment.  He attracts a kind of unanimity.

ARE SNOWDEN'S 15 MINUTES UP? – From The Hill:  "The Obama administration is increasingly less inclined to make a deal to allow Edward Snowden to come back to the United States, according to a top National Security Agency official.  'As time goes on, the utility for us of having that conversation becomes less,' NSA No. 2 Rick Ledgett said this weekend at Aspen Security Forum in Colorado, according to Politico. 'It's been over a year since he had access to our networks and our information so the need for us to understand that greater level of detail is lesser and lesser.'  The comment could point to increasing difficulty for Snowden and his lawyers try to cut a deal that would allow the former contractor to return home from Russia, where he has sought asylum for the last year."  Let him live out his life in the worker's paradise.  The vodka is great.  Not much else.

July 27, 2014     Permalink

IS IT POSSIBLE? – AT 11:52 A.M. ET:  It's a long shot, but there is at least some realistic possibility that Republicans can take a Senate seat away from Democrats this year in the very blue state of Oregon.  George Will has a fine piece about the outstanding Republican candidate.  From the Washington Post: 

“Are you kidding?” This is Monica Wehby’s amiable response to people who wonder whether she will be able to bear the pressures of office if she wins her race as a Republican Senate candidate. For 17 of her 52 years she has been a pediatric neurosurgeon, holding in steady hands sharp steel and the fate of children’s brains. She probably can cope with the strains of legislative life.

Today, her task is to persuade Oregonians to act on the cogent exhortation of her campaign’s bumper stickers: “Keep Your Doctor. Change Your Senator.” She is trying to take a Senate seat away from freshman Democrat Jeff Merkley, who was elected in 2008 with 49 percent of the vote when Barack Obama carried the state with 57 percent. This year, Merkley’s task is to run far ahead of what Wehby’s internal polling shows is Obama’s 43 percent job approval among Oregonians, with 54 percent of independents disapproving of the president.

Oregon is one of the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have supported Democratic nominees in at least six consecutive presidential elections. About half the state’s voters live in the Portland metropolitan area, which has become emblematic of urban progressivism (“smart growth,” autophobia). But from 1969 to 1995, both Oregon senators were Republicans, and Wehby’s pollster says Merkley’s two-point lead (41 percent to 39 percent) derives from the incumbent’s perishable seven-point advantage in name recognition. Wehby is up one point among voters who say they “know” both candidates.

COMMENT:  We can hope.  In most cases that I can recall, the Democrats in blue states pull together at the last minute and come through for the party.  And Democratic scare tactics have their effect.  Maybe Oregon will break the pattern this year.  Will's entire piece is worth reading.

July 27, 2014       Permalink

WARNING ON RUSSIA – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has issued a warning on Russia.  We hope his boss, who lives in the White House (or in the clouds) takes it seriously.  From the Washington Times: 

Call it a Cold War reset: The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told participants Thursday at the Aspen Security Forum that Russia is forcing the Pentagon to re-examine readiness plans that have been collecting dust for decades.

“We’re looking inside our own readiness models to look at things that we haven’t had to look at for 20 years, frankly, about basing and lines of communication and sea lanes,” Gen. Martin Dempsey said, ABC News reported Friday.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing military involvement along Ukraine’s eastern border have also forced “conversations with our NATO allies about increasing their capability and readiness,” the general added.

Gen. Dempsey also told ABC News that he feared Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions could “light a fire that he loses control of” and spark “dangerous” strains of nationalism in Europe.

The general’s comments came on the same day that Pentagon spokesman Army Col. Steve Warren said that Russian troops have been firing artillery at the Ukraine military. The Pentagon fears the shelling could ignite a full-fledged war.

COMMENT:  Mitt Romney was laughed at during the 2012 campaign when he said that Russia was emerging, once more, as our number one enemy.  No one is laughing anymore.  Well, maybe Obama is laughing. 

Putin's strutting depends on American weakness.  And we're supplying the goods. 

Russia is growing stronger militarily as we cut our forces.  President Lead from Behind says he wants greater West European engagement in our disputes with Moscow, but Western Europe is going to be very cautious unless it's sure America has its back.  If you were Paris or Berlin, would you trust Obama and Washington?

July 27, 2014        Permalink

A HUNDRED DAYS TO GO – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  To the election, that is.  The Hill has a good wrapup of where we stand: 

It's an even bet that Republicans get the Senate,” said Cook Political Report Senate editor Jennifer Duffy.

On the House side, Republicans are a lock to remain in power. The real test is whether they can expand their majority.

The battle for Senate control is on conservative terrain. Seven Democratic-held seats are in states 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried, while the GOP has no vulnerable blue-state incumbents.

Republicans are heavily favored to pick off seats of retiring Democrats in West Virginia and South Dakota, and appointed Sen. John Walsh’s (D-Mont.) recent plagiarism scandal has likely doomed his already-uphill race.

The best news for Democrats is that their four red-state incumbents are running strong campaigns and can’t be counted out just yet.

Sens. Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Mark Begich (D-Alaska) seem to have the edge in their races, Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) is hanging tough, and Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) isn’t dead yet.

COMMENT:  Read the whole piece.  It's a well-reported survey of the playing field at the moment.  We've been warning here for months that the GOP will have a very tough time taking the Senate, despite rosy early predictions.  I think Jennifer Duffy's assessment that Republicans are an even bet is about right.  They should be much further ahead, considering the overall political landscape.

Obama is unpopular, but the Republican Party remains unpopular as well.  And Senate races are local.  Democrats holding Senate seats in red states have, by definition, learned to maneuver during election years.  Some, like Pryor and Landrieu, come from famous political families. 

We'll know in only 101 days.

July 27,  2014     Permalink

JULY 26,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

HAMAS REJECTS NEW CEASEFIRE – From CNN:  "Gaza (CNN) -- Israel late Saturday authorized an extension of the humanitarian cease-fire in Gaza for another 24 hours at the request of the United Nations, Israeli officials told CNN.  But Hamas rejected a cease-fire extension, Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said.  'Any humanitarian cease-fire that does not include the withdrawal of the occupation soldiers from Gaza borders and allowing citizens to return to their homes and evacuate casualties is unacceptable,' he said."  Some observers are saying that the real reason Hamas refused the ceasefire is that its leaders want to show courage.  The head of Hamas, by the way, doesn't even live in Gaza.  He lives in Qatar, in luxury, and demonstrates his courage.

SHOCKED TO LEARN THIS – From the Reuters:  "Hamas and North Korea are in negotiations for a deal that would provide the Palestinian Islamist group in Gaza with a replenishment of missiles and communications equipment that would be used to continue its offensive, the British Daily Telegraph reported late Saturday."  Yessirree, that's North Korea, another success story for American diplomacy.  North Korea, which cannot feed its own people, has developed nuclear weapons, in defiance of international demands, and is a major arms exporter to other delightful dictatorships.  Will the U.S. intervene to stop this arms trade with Hamas?  You gotta be kidding.

OBAMA DISCIPLE – From Fox:  "Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, a former Obama administration chief of staff, wants to expand the city’s efforts to house young illegal immigrants from Central America, reportedly proposing to shelter an additional 1,000 of them by year's end.  'The influx of unaccompanied child migrants is a growing humanitarian crisis that we can no longer ignore,' said Emanuel, according to The Chicago Tribune. 'While we have our own challenges at home, we cannot turn our backs on children that are fleeing dangerous conditions.'  The mayor’s office says the federal government will pay for the youths’ shelter, education, health care, food, safety and social services."  It's a noble thought, and compassion is fine, but I suspect Chicago's African-American population, short on services and jobs, will be less than joyful.

July 26, 2014       Permalink

CLOSE ONE – AT 12:08 P.M. ET:  This incident seemed somewhat minor when first reported.  Now it appears to have represented a much more serious threat to a commercial aircraft flying in American airspace.  From CNN:

(CNN) -- A passenger captured dramatic cell phone video of a Canadian SWAT team storming onto a Sunwing flight at Toronto's Pearson International Airport Friday. The video shows the police tactical team swarming onto the plane with their weapons drawn, yelling at passengers to get their hands up, and forcefully removing a 25-year-old man from the aircraft.

The airline said the Panama-bound plane was forced to return to Toronto Friday morning about 45 minutes into the flight after a passenger, identified by authorities as Ali Shahi, made a "direct threat against the aircraft."

Witnesses told CNN affiliate CTV that Shahi said he wanted to bomb Canada.

"The Sunwing flight crew followed the appropriate procedures and turned the flight around in cooperation with the FAA and Canadian authorities," said Sunwing Travel Group Spokeswoman Janine Chapman.

Shahi, a Canadian citizen, was jailed on charges including mischief to property and endangering the safety of an aircraft, police said. He was scheduled for a bail hearing in Brampton, Ontario, on Saturday.

No one on the flight was injured, the airline said.

COMMENT:  I'd like to know more about Ali Shahi, and whether there were political motivations here.  I'd also like to know whether he's been affiliated with any international group.

His family says he's mentally ill, and that they've tried to get help for him.  That may well be true.

Once again, though, we see the vulnerability of commercial aircraft.  The plane was flying over the U.S. when Shahi threw his tantrum. 

July 26, 2014       Permalink

THE REAL ECONOMY – AT 11:28 A.M. ET:   We are supposed to be in an economic recovery, but are we?  Some economic statistics suggest that we're actually getting poorer.  From The New York Times: 

Economic inequality in the United States has been receiving a lot of attention. But it’s not merely an issue of the rich getting richer. The typical American household has been getting poorer, too.

The inflation-adjusted net worth for the typical household was $87,992 in 2003. Ten years later, it was only $56,335, or a 36 percent decline, according to a study financed by the Russell Sage Foundation. Those are the figures for a household at the median point in the wealth distribution — the level at which there are an equal number of households whose worth is higher and lower. But during the same period, the net worth of wealthy households increased substantially.

The Russell Sage study also examined net worth at the 95th percentile. (For households at that level, 94 percent of the population had less wealth and 4 percent had more.) It found that for this well-do-do slice of the population, household net worth increased 14 percent over the same 10 years. Other research, by economists like Edward Wolff at New York University, has shown even greater gains in wealth for the richest 1 percent of households.

For households at the median level of net worth, much of the damage has occurred since the start of the last recession in 2007. Until then, net worth had been rising for the typical household, although at a slower pace than for households in higher wealth brackets. But much of the gain for many typical households came from the rising value of their homes. Exclude that housing wealth and the picture is worse: Median net worth began to decline even earlier.

COMMENT:  It is important not to underestimate or disparage the issue of income inequality.  The gap has been growing in America for some years, and it is dangerous to the stability of society and the loyalty of the people to the nation itself.  If millions of Americans feel that the promise of America is fading for their families, nothing else will matter.

I think many on our side realize the concern is legitimate.  It isn't simply a "Democratic" issue.  We must make it our issue and develop economic policies that will once again create good jobs and great opportunities.  Indeed, many on our side have recognized that income inequality, at the level already reached, is a threat to the country.   And a number on our side, like Sarah Palin, have spoken out against corporate welfare and crony capitalism.  Indeed, the ratio between the highest-paid and lowest-paid employees in corporations is the most obscene in the world.  This isn't "the market" at work.  It's too often the racket at work. 

I have already seen, in New York City, the virtual destruction of Manhattan as a place where young, striving, middle-class families can live.  The city itself is becoming a place of very rich and very poor, with immigrants supplying most of the services.  The dreamers, the creative people, the entrepreneurs, are being driven out of Manhattan, even out of the city itself.  There is a diminished spirit.  The left has its usual socialistic solutions, which fail in the end.   We can do better, but bland salutes to "the free-enterprise system" are falling on deaf ears. 

July 26,  2014     Permalink

LIBYA AND THE U.S., THE SEQUEL – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:  There is upheaval in Libya, and the U.S. is evacuating its embassy, probably to avoid another Benghazi.  From Fox: 

The United States shut down its embassy in Libya Saturday and evacuated its diplomats to neighboring Tunisia under U.S. military escort amid a significant deterioration in security in Tripoli as fighting intensified between rival militias, the State Department said.

"Due to the ongoing violence resulting from clashes between Libyan militias in the immediate vicinity of the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli, we have temporarily relocated all of our personnel out of Libya," spokeswoman Marie Harf said.

The withdrawal underscored the Obama administration's concern about the heightened risk to American diplomats abroad, particularly in Libya where memories of the deadly 2012 attack on the U.S. mission in the eastern city of Benghazi are still vivid and the political uproar over it remain fresh ahead of a new congressional investigation into the incident. A senior military official told Fox News the Pentagon has been advising the State Department to leave the post for weeks.

"Securing our facilities and ensuring the safety of our personnel are top department priorities, and we did not make this decision lightly," Harf said. "Security has to come first. Regrettably, we had to take this step because the location of our embassy is in very close proximity to intense fighting and ongoing violence between armed Libyan factions."

American personnel at the Tripoli embassy, which had already been operating with limited staffing, left the capital around dawn and traveled by road to neighboring Tunisia, according to Harf. Roughly 70 embassy staffers were driven out of the city in a caravan by 80 Marines, Fox News has learned.

"At the request of the Department of State, the U.S. military assisted in the relocation of personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Tripoli," a spokesman from the U.S. Department of Defense said.

"During movement, F-16's, ISR assets and an Airborne Response Force with MV-22 Ospreys provided security," the statement said. The evacuation was not announced in advance in order to ensure the staffers safe departure.

The department said embassy operations will be suspended until a determination is made that the security situation has improved. Tripoli has been embroiled for weeks in inter-militia violence that has killed and wounded dozens on all sides.

The fighting has been particularly intense at the city's airport where militias are fighting for control. Residents near the airport have been forced to evacuate their homes after they were hit by shells. On Friday, the official Libyan news agency LANA reported that explosions were heard early in the day near the airport area and continued into the afternoon.

The U.S. evacuation follows Turkey, which on Friday announced that it had closed down its embassy, as the United Nations, aid groups and foreign envoys also chose to leave the region.

COMMENT:  An absolute mess, and we're still leading from behind.  The Mideast is in flames – Syria, Libya, Iraq, Egypt, Gaza.  It has never been as tumultuous, and threatening, as it is today.   I have to believe that at least one reason for the trauma is declining American influence, and Obama's obvious sympathy for the Muslim Brotherhood, an anti-American and fascistic group. 

Polls sadly show that Obama's withdrawal policies actually meet with some public approval.  The next generation will pay the price.  Foreign policy, more than any other area, requires leadership and explanation, and there's no one home in Washington.

July 26,  2014     Permalink